Where is our humanitarian press denouncing Russia's "illegal" invasion of former Soviet republic, Georgia? A press quick, so quick, to criticize our military and government over the last five years over the Iraq/GWOT, has been not-
surprisingly silent on Russia's intentions in the region. I have some firsthand knowledge and experience in the region myself. Having visited Tbilisi last spring. It is a beautiful country, mountainous and green. And boy do they love the U.S. In fact the highway which connects
Tbilisi international airport with downtown is named "George W. Bush Highway". Beyond their affection for us, they are our allies. Not only for strategic reasons, but for their support of our actions in Iraq. Common sense easily shows that a former Soviet state that is now a strong ally cannot be left to stand alone against post-modern, Russian aggression. In this writer's opinion, two avenues present themselves to the Pentagon and Dept. of State. One: gain support from Western European allies, i.e.
Sarkozy, and maintain a
hard line when it comes to diffusing the conflict. In reference to diplomatic efforts, minimal
concessions should be given by the West and Georgia itself because, again Russia is the aggressor. At the same time, at least two Carrier battle groups should be parked in the Eastern Mediterranean, or even in the Black Sea if Turkey wants to be on our good side again. During talks ask for, nay demand withdrawal of all Russian troops from Georgia, save peace-keeping forces in South
Ossetia and
Abkhazia. Quick note, Poland's approval of
missile defense set in their country is a huge, yet under reported victory for George Bush in the region. Two: aid and support through our CIA and special operations (green berets/force recon) a protracted, quasi-guerrilla
war against the invading Russian army. As was stated above, Georgia is a mountainous region, which as we know from Afghanistan lends itself to balancing the odds between a large, force army and an insurgency. The size, strength, and sustainability of the "Red Army" has suffered throughout post-Soviet Russia, especially during the Putin years. And Georgia is better trained and better equipped than an '80's era Northern Alliance. The former tactic lends itself to regional stability, but opens the way for a new "Cold-War". The latter may be more desirable for Russia to lose face on the international scene, although it would not be difficult to realize the instability, i.e. higher oil prices, which would come from a drawn out regional conflict.
Bottom Line: President Bush needs to put up a strong front diplomatically along with
militarily. And remember when it comes to posturing, subtlety is the key. Georgia, along with its neighbors (Ukraine, etc.), needs to see that they are our allies for a reason.
1 Comments:
Glad to hear from you. Your analysis is right on. I'm afraid I have little faith in today's negotiators. If Russia is allowed to perservere, it could be the brginning of something truly sinister. In addition to the primal urge for world dominance...it also comes down to one thing..."oil".
Dr. T
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